The world is likely to cross the 1.5°C temperature threshold around 2030, according to a new United Nations climate report. This threshold has been a focal point in climate crisis conversations, symbolizing the limit governments aim to stay below. The 1.5°C climate target is about minimizing climate damage, including reducing climate-related displacement, droughts, and rising sea levels.
The Paris Agreement committed signed nations to holding warming “well below” 2°C while pursuing efforts to keep it to 1.5°C. Climate change doesn’t suddenly become catastrophic at 1.5°C; instead, it gets progressively worse with every additional increment beyond it.
According to last year’s World Climate Report, we’re already sitting at roughly 1.4°C of warming compared with pre-industrial levels. Rivers are running dangerously low, oceans are reaching record temperatures, glaciers are retreating, and extreme weather is becoming more destructive.
For our Pacific Island neighbours, the stakes are even higher, as rising seas threaten homes, land, and entire ways of life. The consequences of climate change are far-reaching and devastating.
Crossing 1.5°C doesn’t mean we’ve lost. Scientists talk about a potential “overshoot”: temperatures could temporarily rise above 1.5°C before falling again later this century. If countries rapidly slash fossil fuel use, accelerate clean energy, and remove significant amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, peak warming could potentially be limited to around 1.8°C before temperatures return towards 1.5°C.
Every tenth of a degree matters. Higher temperatures mean greater risks to food systems, ecosystems, coastlines, and human health. Each increment also increases the possibility of triggering tipping points – changes such as major ice-sheet loss or shifts in ocean circulation that could be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to reverse on human timescales.
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Progress is happening. Solar power, electric vehicles, and electrification have accelerated dramatically since the Paris Agreement. The world is no longer heading towards some of the most extreme warming scenarios once considered possible. But emissions still aren’t falling fast enough.
The goal is no longer whether we can “save” 1.5°C in the way we once imagined, but how much damage we can prevent. That means finding ways to live more sustainably: moving faster on renewables, cutting fossil fuel use, protecting vulnerable communities, and investing in carbon removal – while making sure developing countries aren’t left carrying the cost.
Australia will have a particularly interesting role to play as it leads international climate negotiations at COP31 later this year. The country’s actions will be closely watched, and its leadership could potentially inspire other nations to take bold climate action.
Climate change requires immediate attention and cooperation from governments, organizations, and individuals around the world. By working together, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the worst effects of climate change, including the impact on human health through understanding the process of sustainable living.
One key aspect of addressing climate change is understanding the importance of carbon removal and its potential to limit peak warming. As the world continues to warm, it’s essential to explore all available options for reducing emissions and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
